Arbitrage betting is the action of profiting via betting on every outcome of a certain game or match. This article is written under the assumption that the reader has a firm grasp on the concept of arbitrage betting, as this guide explains how biased arbitrage betting works. Biased arbitrage betting still requires that all outcomes are covered with a bet. The big difference between arbitrage betting and biased arbitrage betting is that biased arbitrage betting allows bettors to favor one or two results. This will increase the winnings when these biased results hit, but will open up the possibility of breaking even if the biased results do not hit.
The formulas given in this example are applicable for matches with three possible outcomes, and are best used with football (soccer) matches. There are two different ways to place biased arbitrage bets : Biased betting on two of the three possible outcomes, or biased betting on just one of the three possible outcomes. Both of these methods have a formula that is easy to understand and use. This guide will take you through these biased arbitrage formulas that, when used correctly, will guarantee risk-free betting that will only result in either a profit or breaking even. These formulas are truly valuable once they are understood and mastered. These formulas have a number of variables that must be filled in to execute the formulas. Here is a key of those variables, so you know which pieces of data to enter.
- 1-X-2 - Team 1 / Draw / Team 2 - Match with three possible outcomes
- V - Total money wagered on all three outcomes
- V1 - Money wagered on Bet 1
- V2 - Money wagered on Bet 2
- V3 - Money wagered on Bet 3
- K1 - Odds of Bet 1
- K2 - Odds of Bet 2
- K3 - Odds of Bet 3
- L - Unique variable that will have different value depending on certain outcomes
From face value, the “L” variable is the only one that may be confusing, but here is an explanation. Before you can place a biased arbitrage bet, you must first find out if there is an arbitrage opportunity. To do this, you must run the betting odds on all three possible results through the arbitrage conditions. The arbitrage condition formula is L = 1/K1+1/K2+1/K3<1. If “L” is less than 1, then there is an arbitrage betting opportunity, allowing for bettors to make risk-free wagers. To create these arbitrage betting situations, you must first find odds that are suitable to comply with the given formula. This means that you will have to use multiple sportsbooks to execute arbitrage betting, as it requires odds that will comply with this formula. To find these odds, use oddsmagnet.com, as this site makes it easy to browse through dozens of different odds offered by different bookmakers.
We’ve included a quick example of this formula so you can see how simple it is to use. For our example, we’ve found the best odds for each possible outcome of a match between Arsenal and Chelsea, and we have €1,000 to bet. An Arsenal win pays out at 2.50 odds, a draw at 3.10 odds, and a Chelsea win at 4.10 odds. With this data, we plug the odds into our first formula of
- L=1/K1+1/K2+1/K3<1
- L=1/2.50+1/3.10+1/4.10<1
After calculating , we know that L = .9664 or 96.64%. With the original outcome of .9664, we can confirm that this number is less than 1. This means that our sample match between Arsenal and Chelsea is an arbitrage betting opportunity that would offer risk free bets, as you have found odds that allow you to bet on every outcome while still profiting.
After finding an arbitrage opportunity, the next step of biased arbitrage betting is to choose which outcome, or outcomes, you would like to have biased towards. This outcome will be the only possible outcome that makes a profit. If the results that were not biased-staked hit, bettors using this formula will simply break even. There are six different biased arbitrage formulas covering all possible outcomes, as well as all possible pairs of outcomes. The goal of these formulas is to supply bettors with the information of how much money to bet (V1, V2, V3) to guarantee a profit, or at least break even. For your reference, we will reintroduce our formula key, and fill the data from our example.
- V - Total money wagered on all three outcomes - €1,000
- V1 - Money wagered on Bet 1 (Arsenal Win) - To be calculated with formulas below
- V2 - Money wagered on Bet 2 (Draw) - To be calculated with formulas below
- V3 - Money wagered on Bet 3 (Chelsea Win) - To be calculated with formulas below
- K1 - Odds of Bet 1 : 2.50
- K2 - Odds of Bet 2 : 3.10
- K3 - Odds of Bet 3 : 4.10
- L - Unique variable that will have different value depending on certain outcomes.
Arbitrage Formula for outcome 1 or X
This formula is used to find the L2 and L3 values to be able to find V1, V2, and V3 values when biased staking on results 1 and X.
- L2 = K1/K2
- L3 = (1+L2)/(K3-1)
Using our example and plugging in the data:
- L2 = 2.50/3.10 = .806
- L2 = .806
- L3 = (1+2.50)/(4.10-1) = .582
- L3 = .582
With the “L2” and “L3” calculated, we can plug those numbers into the following formula to check how much must be bet on each outcome to ensure proper arbitrage betting execution.
- V1 = V/(1+L2+L3)
- V2 = (L2 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V3 = (L3 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V1 = 1000(1+.806+.582) = 418
- V1 = €418
- V2 = (.806 x 1000)/(1+.806+.582) = 337.52
- V2 = €337.52
- V3 = (.582 x 1000)/(1+.806+.582) = 243
- V3 = €243
With this information, we know exactly how much to bet on each to make sure to either profit or break even, with biased stakes on outcome 1 and X.
This is just one example of the many different types of biased arbitrage bets that can be made. Each formula is easy and simple to understand and execute once you are familiar with the variables and their values.
Arbitrage Formula for outcome 2 and X
This formula is used to find the L2 and L3 values to be able to find V1, V2, and V3 values when biased staking on results 2 and X.
- L2=K3 x (K1-1)/(K2+K3)
- L3=K2 x (K1-1)/(K2+K3)
After calculating the formula, you will have the “L2” and “L3” values to plug into the following formula, which will tell you exactly how much to bet on each outcome.
- V1 = V/(1+L2+L3)
- V2 = (L2 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V3 = (L3 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
Arbitrage Formula for outcome 1 or 2
This formula is used to find the L2 and L3 values to be able to find V1, V2, and V3 values when biased staking on results 1 or 2
- L2=(1+K1/K3)/(K2-1)
- L3=K1/K2
After calculating the formula, you will have the “L2” and “L3” values to plug into the following formula, which will tell you exactly how much to bet on each outcome.
- V1 = V/(1+L2+L3)
- V2 = (L2 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V3 = (L3 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
Arbitrage Formula for outcome 1
This formula is used to find the L2 and L3 values to be able to find V1, V2, and V3 values when biased staking on result 1.
- L2=K3/(K2 x K3-K2-K3)
- L3=(1+L2)/(K3-1)
After calculating the formula, you will have the “L2” and “L3” values to plug into the following formula, which will tell you exactly how much to bet on each outcome.
- V1 = V/(1+L2+L3)
- V2 = (L2 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V3 = (L3 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
Arbitrage Formula for outcome 2
This formula is used to find the L2 and L3 values to be able to find V1, V2, and V3 values when biased staking on result 2.
After calculating the formula, you will have the “L2” and “L3” values to plug into the following formula, which will tell you exactly how much to bet on each outcome.
- V1 = V/(1+L2+L3)
- V2 = (L2 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V3 = (L3 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
Arbitrage Formula for outcome X
This formula is used to find the L2 and L3 values to be able to find V1, V2, and V3 values when biased staking on result X.
After calculating the formula, you will have the “L2” and “L3” values to plug into the following formula, which will tell you exactly how much to bet on each outcome.
- V1 = V/(1+L2+L3)
- V2 = (L2 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
- V3 = (L3 x V)/(1+L2+L3)
Biased Arbitrage Betting Conclusion
Biased arbitrage betting allows bettors to make risk-free bets on one or more possible outcomes of a game or match. Biased arbing allows the bettor to favor one or two of the results, with the results that were not biased-staked resulting in breaking even. The formulas given allow the bettor to calculate how much money needs to be put on each outcome, with a formula prepared for the different possible outcomes. Bettors who master these formulas will have a massive weapon against the bookies.
